Argentinians, both exhausted by inflation and disenchanted with their politicians, voted on Sunday in primaries to nominate the candidates for the October presidential election, a poll with an uncertain outcome for the succession of Alberto Fernandez (center LEFT).
More than 35 million voters were called upon to preselect both the parties that will be running on October 22 for the presidential election – this requires obtaining 1.5% of the votes nationally – and their candidates. Like a life-size, double-trigger sounding.
At the end of a day without notable incidents, the polling stations, opened at 8:00 a.m., closed for the majority at 6:00 p.m., except for occasional extensions in Buenos Aires, which was testing a new electronic voting system. The first results were to be known around 10:00 p.m. (01:00 GMT Monday).
A first estimate reported 68.3% turnout, well below the primaries four years ago (76.4%), and despite the compulsory nature of the vote, seeming to confirm fears of disaffection of an electorate disenchanted.
Who really wants to lead Argentina, Latin America’s 3rd economy with spectacular agricultural and raw materials potential, but the continent’s long-term patient? The country has been stuck between double-digit inflation for 12 years (and even three digits this year, 115% year-on-year), a colossal debt with the IMF, 40% poverty, and a currency, the peso, which is unscrewing.
Of the 22 “president vice-president” tickets in the running, there will only be half a dozen left on Monday for October 22, including two dominant blocs, from which the future president should emerge. The outgoing Alberto Fernandez, very unpopular, does not represent himself.
In the government camp (center left), Sergio Massa, 51-year-old economy minister, is sure to win the primary, despite a minor candidacy on his left. The centrist Massa succeeded in rallying the Peronist camp and keeping the ear of the IMF. But he has against him to manage, for a year, an economy in intensive care.
In the right-wing opposition, a real, undecided primary pits the mayor of Buenos Aires since 2015, Horacio Larreta, 57, who portrays himself as a moderate and follower of consultation, against a former Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich , 67, who promises “shock” methods, both in economy and in security.
A major interest of PASO (open, simultaneous and compulsory primaries) is to provide a trend, a barometer of the state of forces, sometimes auguring the presidential election.
This was the case in 2019, when the score in the primaries of Alberto Fernandez – the only pre-candidate of the Peronist camp – had prefigured his presidential victory over Mauricio Macri. But the “life-size survey” aspect only comes into play in the event of a significant gap, as a lot of things can still happen in two months of campaigning.
Already, the PASO 2023 mark a break, with the absence of two dominant figures of Argentine politics in recent years: Peronist Cristina Kirchner, 70, former head of state (2007-2015), and Mauricio Macri, 64, the liberal president who succeeded him in 2015, before being defeated by Alberto Fernandez in 2019.
– Who benefits from disenchantment?-
Could the withdrawal of these two great rivals, antagonistic, divisive personalities herald a respite from the acute polarization of Argentine politics? Unless he signals a general disillusion, after two very contrasting presidencies, one liberal, the other interventionist, both of which have been bitterly disappointing.
“I want the best for my grandchildren, but I see little hope,” said Isabel Asebal, a 77-year-old voter. “They (the young people) are all apolitical, they are not interested, they only think of one thing, to leave the country”.
“There is a growing disaffection of the electorate, in a country which had marked political identities”, diagnoses Juan Negri, political scientist from the Torcuato di Tella University.
This disenchantment could benefit the “third man”, the ultraliberal-libertarian economist Javier Milei, with his incendiary speech against the political “caste”, who caused a sensation in the legislative elections in 2021, his party becoming the third force in Buenos Aires (17, 3%). But it may struggle to replicate that impact nationwide.
“You have to break what has been done, then put the pieces back together and start all over again,” said Facundo Cardozo, a 27-year-old salesman near a polling station in Barrio Norte, referring to the appeal of a radical Milei-type solution. “as things stand”.
Argentines also voted on Sunday to pre-select candidates for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, partially renewable in the October 22 ballot.
08/14/2023 01:13:07 – Buenos Aires (AFP) – © 2023 AFP