Bruno Cautrès: "In small towns, many feel abandoned"

CFDT boss Laurent Berger and CGT boss Philippe Martinez, along with a cohort of union leaders, will travel to Albi, the peaceful Tarn prefecture, for the new day of protests against the reform of the retreats, this Thursday, February 16. Since the start of the movement, medium-sized cities have been at the forefront of the mobilizations. Is this phenomenon a sign of a deeper movement? In any case, he is carefully scrutinized by the authorities in Paris. Analysis by Bruno Cautrès, CNRS researcher at Cevipof and teacher at Sciences Po Paris.

Bruno Cautrès: The first lesson is first of all the geographical extent of the demonstrations and the stability in the scale of the mobilization. Depending on how you count, 160 to 230 processions formed in almost all regions and cities. We must be careful in the interpretation, because the processions are made up of demonstrators who often come from other municipalities in the department or the agglomeration. But we see a few regularities over the mobilizations, with many processions in the West, especially in Brittany, in the South-East, in particular the Rhône-Alpes part of the Aura region, the Rhône valley, the Mediterranean rim ( Bouches-du-Rhône), or even the Great East and the North. The available maps show less mobilization in Béarn.

What are the territories where this mobilization is most significant?

Many observers, such as Jérôme Fourquet, and many trade unionists have highlighted mobilizations of an unprecedented scale in medium-sized towns with quite impressive mobilization rates in towns such as Figeac, Morlaix, Tulle, Quimperlé, Tarbes, Vesoul, Aubenas , Montargis, Digne-les-Bains, Vierzon. My colleague Jean Viard analyzes this phenomenon as the mobilization of “the France of the little people”, that of the sub-prefectures and small towns which feel relegated. In these small towns, certain categories feel abandoned by a political power that no longer understands the difficulties of the life of “ordinary” citizens. It is tempting to draw a parallel with the Yellow Vests, of course, even if we lack data to empirically support this hypothesis.

Is this mobilization stronger in medium-sized towns and small towns than in agglomerations? Is this a new phenomenon?

No, not that new. Sociological factors explain a lot of this situation, and sometimes even more than territorial factors: the cut between a “peripheral” France and the France of the “metropolises” is more complex than it seems, because the metropolises also have their areas social exclusion and small towns also have their wealthy neighbourhoods. However, if we consider sociological factors, we see that work has changed over the past two or three decades: short contracts and fragile jobs continue to exist in a France which, however, is once again creating jobs. The meaning of work has also changed. In short, a set of longer-lasting social factors explains the state of tension in French society on everything related to work.

In part, yes, even if the comparison is complex: roundabouts and “acts” every Saturday, it is not comparable to the classic demonstrations, organized and supervised by the unions. The proponents of the thesis of a France of the “peripheries” which feels excluded by a power in line with the “metropolises” interpret it as this and see a familiarity between the mobilization in the medium-sized cities and the France of the Yellow Vests. We still really lack survey data to confirm this, even if it is an interesting hypothesis to verify.

Can we see in this mobilization of medium-sized cities the sign of a redistribution of electoral cards?

You have to be careful not to take this step. Electoral geography is a geography of permanence over time. There are sometimes elections that mark a profound sociological and territorial reorganization, but we are not there yet. The constituencies in which the elections take place (cities, departments, regions, legislative constituencies, the entire country for the presidential and European elections) are not comparable to the map of demonstrations against pension reform. On the other hand, we see that the question of the fair remuneration of one’s life at work, of the fair reward for the efforts made in one’s life, acts as a powerful lever which explains the opposition to this reform on the retirement age. This question should doubtless become more important in the forthcoming elections. As my colleague Luc Rouban has shown very well using data from Cevipof’s Political Trust Barometer, the issue of the broken Republican promise of equality and broken meritocracy explains many of the country’s political tensions.