So, like, the fallout from President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs hit Wall Street first, right? And now it’s Main Street’s turn, as dramatically higher import costs start to ripple through the broader economy. Analysts are saying that the full effects, including higher prices, out-of-stock items, and even empty shelves could be weeks or months away. Many businesses scrambled to stockpile imported goods in March, and some people also bought items early, in anticipation of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
But now U.S. importers are canceling or delaying orders from China, which is subject to tariffs as high as 145%, leading to a slump in shipments to U.S. ports. At the same time, some companies are front-loading imports from other countries subject to 10% tariffs before a 90-day pause ends on July 9, after which rates could spike again. The surge in pretariff imports caused the U.S. economy to contract in the first quarter, according to data released Wednesday.
The levies are like a slow-motion wave, and when it breaks, people will experience things like higher prices and out-of-stock items. Even a major reversal on tariffs may not avert near-term shortages, since the supply chain has already been disrupted.
Some compare this process to a slow-motion wave. But most agree that at some point the wave will break and U.S. consumers, long accustomed to abundance and choice, will feel some pain – a pain generated by U.S. trade policy. Even a major reversal by the president on tariffs may not come in time to avert near-term shortages, since global trade has already been disrupted and it takes time to restart shipments. Imports are slowing down “because importers are not sure what the ultimate demand for products will be. They know they have to raise prices because they are paying the tariffs,” says Jason Miller, a professor who studies supply chains at Michigan State University.
The White House has downplayed the impact of tariffs on Americans while insisting that the U.S. economy will ultimately benefit from the reshoring of manufacturing behind higher trade barriers. Officials have also argued that tariffs will bring in revenues to offset a congressional plan for lower income taxes that will put more money in peoples’ pockets.
President Donald Trump announces his sweeping new tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House, April 2, 2025, in Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters on Tuesday that retailers had “managed their inventory” and that he didn’t expect any shortages of consumer goods, as happened in 2020 during the pandemic. “I wouldn’t think that we would have supply chain shocks,” he said.
One day later, though, Mr. Trump seemed to undercut that message, when he said U.S. imports from China were mostly goods “we don’t need” and shrugged off higher prices. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more.”
The Trump administration has said that it’s negotiating with dozens of countries to strike trade deals, though experts say such agreements rarely come to fruition quickly and that major partners like the European Union and Japan will seek U.S. concessions in turn. But there are no indications that talks with China have even started. And when they do, they are likely to prove highly contentious, given the overlay of security and political tensions on top of trade arrangements. For now, many Chinese-made products that U.S. manufacturers and retailers rely on have become unaffordable to import without tariff exemptions, which have already been granted to smartphones and laptops.
For shoppers, the disruption to trade with China will particularly impact home goods, toys, and kitchen appliances, says Professor Miller. “For many of these goods there are no alternatives” to those made in China. The shock won’t be immediate, given existing large inventories, he says. But by June or July, made-in-China products could become unavailable or sold at much higher prices.
Other forecasters agree with that timeline. In a recent presentation, Apollo Global Management, an asset-management company, predicted that shipments of Chinese goods to U.S. ports will stop arriving mid-May, triggering layoffs at U.S. trucking and logistics companies by early June. Many small businesses, including family-run retailers, could be forced into bankruptcy over the summer, leading to what Apollo dubs “The Voluntary Trade Reset Recession.”
