watching-democracies-fail-trumps-mpact-analyzed

President Donald Trump and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele were chilling in the Oval Office, having a grand time. The big cheese of the free world and the Central American leader who thinks he’s the “coolest dictator” were having a chat in mid-April about their plan to send a bunch of deported migrants to El Salvador’s not-so-great prison system. The Trump crew claimed these folks were linked to gangs they labeled as foreign terrorist organizations, and they didn’t bother with due process – you know, giving them a chance to prove their innocence before shipping them off. Mr. Trump had a bunch of court battles over these deportations, and one guy, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, was a hot topic. He’s a Salvadoran living in Maryland, married to a U.S. citizen, who got sent back to his home country due to an “administrative error.” Oops.

Why We Wrote This
Folks who know stuff say the American president is taking a page out of the playbook of other leaders who used democracy to mess it up.
In early April, a judge in Maryland ordered Mr. Abrego Garcia to be brought back to the U.S. The Justice Department wasn’t having it and tried to reverse the decision. Then, right before Mr. Bukele’s visit to the White House, the U.S. Supreme Court said unanimously that Mr. Abrego Garcia needed to be brought back. But guess what? The two leaders, in front of a bunch of reporters, said, “Nope, not gonna happen.” Mr. Bukele even asked, “How am I supposed to smuggle a terrorist into the U.S.?”

Over the past six years, Mr. Bukele has really cut down the crazy high homicide rate in El Salvador by declaring a state of emergency, getting rid of judges and prosecutors he didn’t like, and locking up more people than anywhere else in the world. About 1.7% of El Salvador’s population is now behind bars without a fair trial, lawyers, or contact with their families. “They say we’ve locked up thousands,” Mr. Bukele said. “I like to think we’ve actually freed millions.” “That’s cool,” Mr. Trump replied with a smirk. “Who fed you that line? Can I use it?”

President Donald Trump and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House, April 14, 2025.
This event marked a growing face-off that the Trump crew has started with the pillars of American democracy and rule of law: individual judges and lawyers, government workers, universities, the media, and the courts. Mr. Trump, his buddies, and his hardcore supporters say he’s taking back the president’s rightful power and making sure unelected bureaucrats don’t have too much control over Americans’ lives. People who study autocratic regimes agree that Mr. Trump’s early moves look a lot like what budding autocrats do.

A bunch of experts who’ve spent years studying and defending democratic institutions from countries like Hungary to El Salvador all think Mr. Trump is going down a familiar path. A survey of political scientists that used to give the U.S. good ratings for democracy now think things are shaky. They’re worried about free speech, government agencies punishing political enemies, press freedom, impartial criminal investigations, and court independence.

Senator Chris Van Hollen talking to Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a guy wrongly deported by the Trump team and locked up in El Salvador. They met in San Salvador, April 17, 2025.
“Political scientists are freaking out like never before,” says Brendan Nyhan, a Bright Line Watch co-director and presidential studies prof at Dartmouth. “This is straight out of the authoritarian playbook.” Other surveys back this up. The U.S. isn’t seen as one of the most stable democracies anymore. People are concerned about the future of American democracy, and the pressure from the Trump administration isn’t helping.

To be continued…