The IPCC is entering its seventh cycle. The new office will begin work at a pivotal time, as we have just gone through the hottest July on Earth and extreme weather events are on the rise, from record high temperatures in the Mediterranean to torrential rains in Beijing . Measures will have to be put in place to adapt to these extreme conditions and limit greenhouse gas emissions, the reduction of which is still insufficient.
French climatologist and meteorologist Robert Vautard, a specialist in extreme events, was elected co-chairman of group 1 of the IPCC, responsible for the synthesis of scientific knowledge on climate change, by the representatives of the 195 Member States meeting in plenary assembly in Nairobi , in Kenya. Researcher at the CNRS and director of the Pierre-Simon-Laplace Institute, 60 years old, the scientist thus succeeds Valérie Masson-Delmotte for a mandate of five to seven years, the time necessary to establish a report. He explains to Le Point the challenges ahead.
Le Point: What will be the objectives and challenges of the IPCC for this crucial seventh cycle?
Robert Vautard: Above all, the challenges and objectives of the IPCC will be defined jointly with the three working groups under the chairmanship of the Briton Jim Skea. It is a collective vision that needs to be built. The coming decade is pivotal for the climate. We don’t have much time: today we have a global warming of 1.1 to 1.2°C, and the policies put in place lead to a warmer climate of about 3°C, whereas the countries have agreed on 2°C maximum in the Paris agreements.
We are therefore faced with two urgent challenges. The climate has already changed a lot, as have the risks. Extreme events occur everywhere, and we don’t know them all very well. Heat waves have increased, extreme droughts are more frequent… We will therefore have to assess them well to adapt to them in a sustainable way, knowing that these events are likely to increase further.
The second thing is to find methods to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This cycle will be very special for this: to achieve this, it will be useful to deliver examples, immediately applicable solutions. We must therefore be able to provide information of as good a quality as in previous reports, while exploiting the experience we already have of climate change. How, for example, do you deal with water shortages or humid heat waves? There are urgent solutions to be found and we do not yet have the answers to everything: it will be up to the collective reflection of the IPCC to answer them.
Does it involve a change of method?
I think we need to be able to deliver more concrete examples of risks, with solutions and means of action. Things already exist, of course, the latest report from the High Council for the Climate in France includes levers for action, but we must bring new knowledge and look into the question of new risks, global risks, and the disruptions in the climate system.
We also want to evolve in the way we work. A fabric of decision-makers at all levels, whether public or private, could participate upstream in the framing of the reports and in the definition of the questions to which we will respond. Why not, respecting the neutrality rules of the IPCC, organize a discussion not only between scientists and government representatives, as is currently the case, but also with sectoral actors who may be represented by major international associations? We will need to know the priorities of the energy, insurance, agriculture or water management sectors, for example, as well as those of regional authorities, city managers…
We will have to set up an organization at the level of the regions all over the world, with the scientists but also with the other stakeholders. It’s a daunting challenge to come up with a framing that will properly answer the questions.
How to communicate better?
It is also a challenge. We will have to think about how to deliver our information, the length and the too “scientific” aspect of the previous reports have been mentioned. What are the stories and examples we will use to enable concrete and sustainable action?
The participants in the IPCC all have the will to be at the service of urgent climate action without frightening the whole world. We must stay in rationality, in the solutions applicable in a quick and reasonable way, without carrying a speech of panic.
I would like to avoid anxiety-provoking speeches to show the solutions in a more pragmatic way, without triggering controversy all the time and by proposing an effort that is sustainable.
Is it still possible to meet the goals of the Paris agreements?
The Paris Accords set the goal of limiting warming to between 1.5 and 2°C, and it’s still possible. 1.5°C can be difficult, as the latest report mentions that they should be exceeded in about ten years, although this is not yet certain. 2°C is within reach, and so are lower thresholds. I don’t like hard thresholds: saying you’ve crossed one feels like it’s not worth fighting for anymore, when every tenth of a degree counts.
We are certainly on a trajectory where the reduction of emissions is insufficient to reach the objectives of the Paris agreements, but, whatever happens, everything that goes in the direction of reducing greenhouse gas emissions makes it possible to better limit global warming and therefore better adapt.
Have you already defined priority themes?
The first report to be delivered will focus on cities, since they are places of both risk concentration and greenhouse gas emissions. The report will provide information on the risks relating to cities, and on their adaptation, to contribute to the reduction of emissions through better organization, to respond to supply challenges, to adapt buildings and the consumption of water and energy…
These challenges will particularly arise in cities in the South, which are in full expansion, but also in cities by the sea, exposed to the rise in sea level, and in large metropolises, where heat islands are added to heat waves.
