Renewed optimism at the Banque de France: in its latest forecasts published on Monday, the institution doubled its growth forecast in France for 2023 and now expects a 0.6% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), against 0.3% envisaged so far.
On the inflation front, the central bank is lowering its forecast for 2023. “There’s a little more growth and a little less inflation,” summed up the central bank’s chief economist, Olivier Garnier.
For 2023, the institution justifies the doubling of its growth forecast by inflation (in particular energy) lower than expected, and “higher growth in global demand”.
These positive surprises are, however, offset by the country’s “financial environment”, with exchange rates and borrowing rates less buoyant than in December. Even increased, the growth forecast for 2023 remains lower than those of the OECD (0.7%, raised by 0.1 point on Friday) and the government (1%).
Another lesson: while food inflation has taken over from energy inflation as the main driver of price increases, it should peak “towards the end of the first half of the year”, according to Matthieu Lemoine, one of the authors of the projections. macroeconomic figures for 2023-2025 published on Monday.
Prices would then increase more slowly, thanks to “the planned easing of the price of agricultural inputs […] and the international prices of agricultural raw materials”, explains the institution. “But we do not expect a drop in food prices on the horizon of our projection”, that is to say 2025, warns Matthieu Lemoine.
All goods and services included, the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) – the inflation barometer which refers to the European level and which the Banque de France uses in its projections – would stand at 5.4% annual average in 2023, compared to 6% expected so far. The HICP would then decline to 2.4% in 2024 and then to 1.9% in 2025, below the 2% mark targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB).
These forecasts of activity and inflation are nevertheless dependent on “many hazards”. “The indirect effects of the recent banking and financial volatility should be closely monitored, as recent events caused by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States or the uncertainty around Credit Suisse have reminded us”, details- she.
The difficulties of American and Swiss banks have indeed caused chaotic sessions on European financial markets, including the Paris Stock Exchange, investors fearing a major financial crisis.
But the Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau reiterated on Friday morning on BFM Business his confidence in the solidity of European banks, as did the French Banking Federation on Saturday for the banks of France. And the institution does not believe either in a lasting effect on the economy of the tensions concerning the pension reform.
“There may be temporary effects from one quarter to the next,” admitted Olivier Garnier, but “when we think over the multi-year horizon […] it is not likely to significantly affect the projection”.
These uncertainties aside, the Banque de France is therefore counting on a clear upturn in growth in 2024 (1.2% as anticipated in previous forecasts) and in 2025 (1.7% against 1.8%). This relaunch would be supported in particular by an upturn in household consumption (1.5% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025), whose remuneration should experience more dynamic growth than in recent years.
The average salary per employee, which includes overtime and bonuses, is expected to grow by 6% in 2023, 4.6% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025, without purchasing power jumping in the same proportions.
“This increase in wages should not lead to an inflationary spiral”, specifies the Banque de France. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate would experience a “transient” increase in 2023 and 2024 before starting a “decline” again from 2025.
