After years of progressive separation, of constant clashes and irreconcilable positions, the EU and Turkey have begun to redirect their differences. But that just this Thursday the foreign ministers of the 17 have decided to put relations with Ankara on the table, and have dusted off such important issues for Recep Tayyip Erdogan such as the possible exemption of visas or the deepening of customs is very striking. The decision to put it on the agenda comes just a few days after the veiled blackmail that was heard the day before the start of the recent NATO Summit: “Turkey has been waiting at the gate of the EU for more than 50 years. I appeal to these countries that make Turkey wait. Open the way for Turkey to the EU and we will clear the way for Sweden,” Erdogan declared at Atatürk airport, before traveling to Vilnius.
The relationship does not seem casual. Diplomatic sources assure that there is no link, that there was no Turkish blackmail and that regardless of what he said in his country, in the Alliance meeting room he never raised the subject. But the fact is that there was a compromise agreement and that Erdogan agreed, in theory, to endorse the entry of Sweden, something that the assembly must do in the autumn. And immediately afterwards, the EU takes a big step, more symbolic than concrete, as a sign of goodwill. In international relations, if you quack like a duck, walk like a duck, and behave like a duck, the animal in front of you is most likely a duck.
The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, considered this Thursday “good news” that Turkey wants to get closer and applauded that its positions on the war have “created a new dynamic” in the neighborhood and in the accession process. “They want to give priority to the European agenda in their political approach towards us. It is good news and now the ministers will have to discuss how to respond,” said the Spaniard, who met his new counterpart last week in Indonesia, confirming that they would look at “first the modernization of the customs union and also the issue of visas.”
The moment can be controversial, but the truth is that it suits all parties. To some because they can present it in a national key as a sign of their negotiating power before a previously hostile Europe and at a very delicate moment for its economy, which desperately needs the euros that come from its first commercial social. And the others because they can attribute it to a change in course abroad that, in turn, justifies reaching out, even though it may seem to give in to pressure.
The EU had already planned to study in depth the relationship with Türkiye. The conclusions of the June European Council, the document that the leaders agree on and sets the political guidelines for the institutions, agreed precisely to invite “the High Representative and the Commission to present a report on the situation of relations between the EU and Turkey, based on the instruments and options defined by the European Council and in order to proceed strategically and prospectively”.
At 27 they are interested. On the one hand, because the Russian invasion of the Ukraine has effectively changed almost everything, starting with foreign policy and what to do with the neighbours. From the Balkans, included in what is known as the European Political Community to narrow the deal, to the applicants for membership, whose list, in addition to some Balkans, now includes Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia. And that inevitably affects Turkey as well. Josep Borrell’s team, in charge of preparing and directing the meetings of community ministers, has urged everyone to think in which areas “the EU could concentrate its efforts to consolidate or increase its influence in relations with Turkey”, given the new “geopolitical relevance” of Ankara. “In light of the changing geopolitical context, it is important to discuss the way forward in relations between the EU and Turkey in the short and medium term,” says the preparatory text that the Financial Times advanced and this newspaper has been able to read.
The second truth is that the agreement between the two parties by which Turkey assumes the commitment to contain migratory flows and prevent the departure of refugee boats to Europe expires this year. It was not only 3,000 million euros, but when it was signed, in 2016, the EU agreed to reopen the frozen chapters on accession that expressly refer to visas and customs. It was done, but subsequent events, including a controversial and bizarre failed coup, and subsequent repression, ended up once again suspending any progress. The migration problem, or rather, the political problem in the EU due to the inability to find common solutions, is still there, so renewing the agreement is vital. This same Sunday, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, traveled to Tunisia to sign something similar in exchange for more than 1,000 million euros.
The third reality is that, against the odds, Turkey is indeed turning towards Europe after five years away. She has insisted that the country has earned the right to be in NATO; she has recently angered Russia by releasing prisoners of war from Mariupol; she has acted as a mediator on various issues, including the grain agreement that Russia has blown up these days. And being part of the Alliance, she maintains relationships with almost all of the members. She has blocked Sweden, yes, but accepted Finland. She has not made merits to be the first friend, but in Brussels they recognize a change and believe that in the current international context, it is essential to take advantage of it.
The situation is by no means on track. Almost no one is in favor right now of removing the visa requirement, there are doubts about customs and the political will for anything that has to do with a hypothetical future accession is buried, perhaps forever. Then there is the question of Cyprus, which is sacred to Athens and Nicosia. Any progress with Turkey must not only take into account human rights, political rights or the country’s anti-terror laws, but the situation in the occupied part of the island. The Cypriot minister, Constantinos Kombos, made it clear that any progress must be “benchmark-oriented, merit-based, proportionate and subject to established conditionalities,” he said, recalling that just today marks the 49th anniversary of the Turkish invasion.
Not to mention that the country is playing the clueless with the sanctions against Moscow and has strengthened commercial exchanges, taking advantage of the vacuum created in the European market and the fall in prices. “We are convinced that there is mutual interest in having a stronger relationship and in having a de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean that will help everyone’s stability and security. The EU must get involved to build on mutual interests and bridge existing differences. This goes in two directions. There are issues that Turkey has expressed interest in, such as the review of the customs union agreement or the liberalization of visas, the two most important things that can be raised. But we hope that there will be a de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean and they will resume negotiations according to the UN proposals. The relationship with Greece or Cyprus, and that area of the Mediterranean, is essential for constructive relations”, the 27 have settled, returning the ball to Ankara.
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