From a political point of view, the world has been in a new, old East-West order since the start of the Ukraine war. Economically, China has gained massive influence. The US is making protectionist plans. If Europe wants to remain an economic powerhouse, it needs more friends – especially in Africa. But that is a question of attitude.
When Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the world quickly took a stand: in a resolution by the UN General Assembly, 141 states condemned the war of aggression in the middle of Europe. The United States and Canada pledged their support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a turning point. The EU also pledged united support to Ukraine. So the political position of the West is clear. But also those of the East: Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria sided with Russia. East and West 2.0? Not quite.
35 countries, including the global economic powerhouse China, abstained from the UN resolution. The political scientist Daniela Schwarzer dares a current assessment: “At the moment, China is not clearly in the camp of states that support the Russian warfare,” she explains in the podcast “Wirtschaft Welt
Since the beginning of the war, China has further expanded its economic relations with Russia. For example, the country is increasingly buying Russian gas and oil, benefiting from low prices. An advantage that should strengthen China’s position as a global economic power – also compared to Germany. One thing becomes clear: the old conflict, West versus East, has long since received a new component through globalization. Because never before has our economy been as networked as it is today.
Germany, for example, is establishing new energy partnerships around the world and is trying harder than ever to avoid one-sided dependencies. Our view of Africa is changing – from a recipient of humanitarian aid to a resource-rich economic partner. The African continent could become the geopolitical joker for Europe. But the East has long since arrived: China in particular has invested heavily in Africa over the past ten years. For Daniela Schwarzer, Europe and the USA have lost ground on the African continent: “We are noticing that political interest on the African continent is not as great as we might have expected, because others have been investing longer and much more intensively .”
Stefan Bayer, Head of Geopolitics and Strategies Research at the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, also has Africa in mind. More people worldwide are suffering from climate change than we want to admit: “We still owe the bill,” explains the economist. “As long as we are perceived as perpetrators and not as those who bring freedom and prosperity, we have a problem in our narrative belief that our model is a better one.”
For Bayer, the Ukraine war could become a kind of proxy war between free, Western-oriented nations and a “sublime mixture of different countries that sympathize with everything that speaks against globalization.” Bayer fears “that we will then think about global political tensions that will become even more massive in the future than has been the case so far.” For him, these are lines of conflict that will remain even if the war in Ukraine is finally ended.
