Tuesday, June 4, Emmanuel Macron called for an “emergency law” to speed up reconstruction, after the considerable damage caused by the riots that began on June 27, after the death of Nahel M., in Nanterre. But how much has this violence, in the suburbs and in the city centers, cost the French economy?
In an interview with Le Parisien, the president of the employers’ union Mouvement des entreprises de France (Medef), Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux (who will leave his post in mid-July), ventured to make an estimate: with regard to the companies, “it is too early to give a precise figure but we are at more than a billion euros, not counting the damage to tourism”.
An approximate figure, and assumed as such by the boss of bosses, but which has gradually taken on consistency through being repeated from media to media. “This is not a precise figure, we have never claimed it, but we will probably be around that”, specifies the Medef, questioned by Le Monde, Tuesday July 4.
In detail, this “billion euros” is based on very floating estimates, even contradictory calculations. The employers’ union explains that it has integrated several types of expenses related to compensation for claims, operating loss and the cost of partial unemployment. Added to this are a number of additional costs, such as the drop in tourist numbers.
The first part corresponds to compensation paid by insurance companies. The Medef evokes a bill of 300 million euros. A rounded figure, but consistent with the 280 million mentioned Tuesday, June 4 on Franceinfo by Florence Lustman, president of France Assureurs, professional federation which represents almost all insurance players.
Both Medef and France Assureurs point out that this is a provisional figure, as all claims have not yet been declared. There were 5,800 in four days.
The employers also include in their estimate partial unemployment which would concern ten thousand employees: the labor code provides that the employer pays 70% of his gross hourly wage to an employee who is technically unable to carry out his mission. This is a “marginal” cost, estimated at 30 million euros, specifies the Medef.
Whether destroyed or damaged, many businesses are closed, at least temporarily. Loss of profit, value of lost goods, repairs… “The operating loss varies according to the damage. For a destroyed store, this can go up to a year or a year and a half of turnover, “says a spokesperson for Medef.
Based on feedback by sector, the Medef evokes 200 shops completely looted, 300 bank branches destroyed; 250 tobacconists affected; 220 large areas damaged, including twenty-five completely razed; and nearly 1,200 independent traders affected. In detail, the Française des jeux counts 400 degraded points of sale. The Trade and Distribution Federation, more than 200 medium and large stores, including 40 Aldi supermarkets. From Nike to Lacoste via Adidas and Foot Locker, 150 sporting goods stores have also been targeted, explains to World Virgile Caillet, general delegate of the Union sport and cycle. By adding up all these operating losses, the Medef estimates the overall cost at “at the very least 500 million euros. »
If we add these three elements, we arrive at a bill of the order of 830 million euros, rather than “more than a billion euros”. Recontacted on Tuesday evening, the Medef explained that the figure for the operating loss was within a range of up to 700 million euros, taking into account the impact on French morale and consumption, while recalling the difficulty of arriving at a precise figure.
The employers’ union also cites indirect effects on tourism. “The drop is difficult to assess,” he admits, while referring to a observed decline in reservations, of between 20% and 25% for the first weekend of July, according to the main hotel and restaurant union, the Union of Hotel Trades and Industries (UMIH) cited in Liberation, and between 25% and 30% in the Bouches-du-Rhône, according to UMIH 13 on BFM-TV.
In his initial remarks, Mr. Roux de Bézieux clarified that this overall estimate did not take into account “damage to tourism”. Relaunched on this contradiction, the Medef evokes indirect costs difficult to quantify precisely, but which were integrated into the calculation. Approximations assumed by the employers’ union, which justifies them by other invisible impacts, such as the loss of earnings during the sales and the lost expenses of tourists.
In recent days, many other players have also tried to quantify the damage on their scale. At the microphone of Europe 1, Alain Di Crescenzo, president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Marseille, speaks of “100 million euros” of damage in the Marseille city.
Joined by AFP, the Ile-de-France Mobilités agency, which manages transport in the Ile-de-France region, estimates the damage at 20 million euros, including “burnt buses, a burnt tram, two damaged trams and street furniture that was broken”. For its part, the Grand-Est region has released 5 million euros for the reconstruction of damaged public transport.
A hundred public buildings were degraded or destroyed in Ile-de-France, while nearly eighty post offices in the country “could not reopen due to destruction or risks to staff and customers present. “, according to La Poste, quoted by AFP. No invoice at the national level has yet been established.