The centre-right National party, led by former Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxon, will take the reins of New Zealand with its preferred coalition party, ACT, after Labor leader and current president Chris Hipkins acknowledged that could not form a government after a general election that revolved around the cost of living crisis that the country is going through.
The current Conservative opposition won 38.95% of the vote and ACT 8.98%, while the ruling Labor Party won 26.9%, ending six years in power. The right-wing coalition has consolidated its position to lead the next Executive by obtaining a total of 61 seats (50 for National, 11 for ACT), compared to 52 (34 for Labor) for the left. A total of 61 seats are needed to form a government.
After the results were known, Hipkins, who became Labor leader in January after the surprise resignation of Jacinda Ardern, spoke from Wellington to acknowledge his party’s defeat. “As things stand, Labor is not in a position to form another government,” he declared. After adding that he had already called Luxon to congratulate him, he concluded that “the result is not what any of us wanted.”
The election results have shown a dramatic shift to the right in what analysts have described as a “bloodbath” for the Government. “The main issue these elections dealt with was the economy and the increase in the cost of living caused by inflation,” Karl Lofgren, professor and director of the School of Government at the Victoria University of Wellington, explains to EL MUNDO.
Inflation under the Labor Government reached 7.3% in March 2022, the highest level in the last 32 years, and currently remains at 6%. The biggest driver has been food prices, which rose 12.3% in the twelve months to June 2023, according to figures published by Stats NZ.
Both blocs debated different areas in which to reduce public spending: new taxes for Labor and public sector job cuts for the Conservatives. However, the fatigue that was already dragging on from Ardern’s game, and then from Hipkins, had no remedy.
“While most voters can agree that Ardern did a great job during the Christchurch shootings and the pandemic, the Labor Government never achieved the goals (affordable housing, improving failing infrastructure, overhauling the education system ) that they raised in their 2017 and 2020 electoral campaigns,” underlines Lofgren. Add to that rising taxes, home loans and inflation and “it is highly likely that the financial situation has pushed marginal voters towards National in the hope of change.”
The advantage of the right-wing coalition over the left-wing one has been observed by all New Zealand polling institutes that have published at least two surveys since March, with a clear rebound to the right occurring in the two months prior to the elections.
Although Labor gained five percentage points, with 38% in the polls, when Hipkins took office in January, its popularity has faded since then, as it no longer had the success of managing the pandemic after which hide. That’s why Ardern’s resignation didn’t surprise New Zealanders like it did the rest of the world. “Like Gorbachev, Jacinda Ardern was more popular abroad than in New Zealand when she resigned. She surely saw support for her party waning and she decided to jump ship before it affected her political reputation. “says Lofgren.
The only unknown that remained to be resolved at the polls was whether the coalition of National and the libertarian ACT party would be forced to incorporate a third force – the populist New Zealand First – into its government pact. Winston Peters’ party was already the kingmaker with the left-wing coalition led by Ardern in 2017.
To cheers of “we’ve won!” and loud applause, Luxon took to the podium during a National election event in Auckland to celebrate his victory and congratulate New Zealand First leader Winston Peters on his party’s return to Parliament.
National won “because it listened to the nation,” exclaimed Luxon. “You have voted for change. You have given us the mandate to move New Zealand forward,” he added, as his supporters chanted his campaign slogan, which promised to return the country “to the right path.” Eager to get started, he said his party’s priority is to rebuild the economy, reduce the cost of living and restore law and order.
