Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu on Thursday first floated the idea of ??a nine-month transition for the military in power in neighboring Niger. For their part, the latter continue to raise their voices against France, in particular by announcing their desire to expel the French ambassador to Niamey. The Nigerian leader who is also the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Thursday cited as an example the “nine-month” transition that had been implemented in his country in 1999. “The President sees no reason why this cannot happen again in Niger if the military authorities are sincere”, reports a press release from the Nigerian presidency, while nevertheless warning that the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS will not be alleviated without “positive adjustments” from the new regime in Niamey. “If we don’t threaten them with a big stick, we will all suffer the consequences,” President Tinubu said.

This is the first time that an ECOWAS country has mentioned a duration for a possible transition. Especially Nigeria is considered from the beginning as one of the drivers of a potential military intervention in Niger.

If the exit of President Tinubu only commits his country, at the same time, the West African organization wanted to deny any timetable, and recall in a press release, published the same day, that its position remained “clear” and that the “military authorities in Niger must restore constitutional order immediately by releasing and reinstating President Mohamed Bazoum”, deposed during the putsch on July 26.

ECOWAS has imposed heavy economic sanctions on Niger since the end of July, and has repeatedly threatened military intervention. On Tuesday, Algeria, an influential neighbor of Niger, had proposed a “six-month transition plan” before a return to constitutional order.

The generals in power in Niamey had mentioned, on August 19, a transition of three years maximum.

The Nigerien military regime is also engaged in a diplomatic standoff with France, a former colonial power and partner of the country in the fight against jihadists. According to a letter from the Nigerien Ministry of Foreign Affairs, addressed to Paris and dated Tuesday, the police services have been “instructed in order to proceed with the expulsion” of the French ambassador Sylvain Itté. The letter also states that the authorities have withdrawn his diplomatic immunity and visa, as well as those of his family members.

Friday evening, the military in power had given forty-eight hours to the French diplomat to leave the territory, which Paris refused, arguing that this government was illegitimate and had no authority to base such a request.

At the end of this period, Mr. Itté, whose work Emmanuel Macron praised on Tuesday, was still in post in Niamey.

Thursday afternoon, vehicles leaving the French embassy were systematically searched, several residents told AFP. According to Article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the premises of an embassy are “inviolable” and agents of the state, where they are located, are not permitted “to enter therein, except with the consent of the head of the mission”.

The Patriotic Front for the Sovereignty of Niger (FPSN), an organization created in the aftermath of the putsch and hostile to the French military presence in Niger, described Mr. Itté on Wednesday as a “French citizen in an irregular situation”.

On Thursday, the spokesman for the French General Staff, Colonel Pierre Gaudillière, warned that “French military forces are ready to respond to any renewed tension that would undermine French military and diplomatic grips in Niger” and that “arrangements have been made to protect these rights-of-way.”

This Friday, on the sidelines of a trip to Vaucluse, the French president reaffirmed that France will only take a decision on Niger “on the basis of discussions with President Bazoum”, overthrown by soldiers who have not “no legitimacy”. Emmanuel Macron once again paid tribute to Mohamed Bazoum, held prisoner since the July 26 coup. Claiming to speak to him “every day”, he praised the “commitment, action, courage” of the deposed head of state.