Ireland is on track to experience temperatures as high as 33C, according to a recent study conducted by experts at Maynooth University in Kildare. The research suggests that a temperature event of 33C in Dublin’s Phoenix Park, previously considered a 1 in 180-year occurrence in 1942, has now become a 1 in 9-year event as of 2020. Additionally, the study indicates that temperatures exceeding 34 degrees Celsius, which have not yet been recorded in Ireland, have transitioned from a 1 in 1,600-year event to a 1 in 28-year event over the same time period.
Led by Prof Andrew Parnell and Dr Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, in collaboration with Prof Peter Thorne of MU’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre and Prof Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University in the UK, the study emphasizes the significant increase in the spatial extent of heatwave events critical to society. Dr. Healy highlighted that these spatial heatwave events have at least doubled in extent for 28 degrees Celsius and continue to increase at more extreme temperatures.
The findings of the study, presented in a recent paper titled ‘Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland,’ were shared at The Royal Statistical Society meeting on ‘Statistical Aspects of Climate Change’ held online on June 3, 2024. Prof Parnell stressed the importance of focusing on extreme temperature changes, as they are more substantial than changes in average temperatures, posing serious concerns that require attention.
The urgency for societal adaptation to increasing extreme temperature events is underscored by the research team, as these events impact public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience. The model developed by the researchers offers a valuable tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risks and plan for future climate scenarios by predicting spatial patterns of extreme events.
Although the study indicates a potential rise in temperatures, Met Éireann’s latest forecast for Ireland does not show any signs of reaching 33C temperatures. The forecast predicts an unsettled end to the week, with breezy conditions, clear spells, and scattered showers expected. Temperatures ranging from 8 to 18 degrees are anticipated, with varying wind strengths across different regions.
As the week progresses, the forecast suggests a mix of sunshine and showers, with some areas experiencing light rain or drizzle. The weekend is expected to bring mostly dry mornings with sunny spells, although showers are likely in the north and west regions. Temperatures are forecasted to range from 13 to 17 degrees, accompanied by light to moderate winds.
In conclusion, while the study points towards a potential increase in extreme temperatures in Ireland, the current weather forecast from Met Éireann indicates a different outlook for the upcoming days. It is essential for individuals and authorities to stay informed about weather updates and be prepared for any changes in weather conditions.
