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Two years after British referendum on a withdrawal from European Union is still not clear what DieBriten really want. The ruling Tory party is divided, dasParlament and people split. On Monday, Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit-MinisterDavid Davis resigned in dispute over correct Brexit strategy. Wiegeht It continue now? Three possible scenarios:
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It is nightmare scenario of economy empireand at same time threatening backdrop of hardliners: Great Britain enters EU on 29 März2019 without agreement from Customs union and internal market. Benefits: Britain would be independent, could underrule EU rules, trump internationally with low tax rates, complete its own trade agreements with wider world, and shine as Singapore of West. That’s ory. The reality is that no one in ministries seems to be preparing specifically for this “no Deal”, because idea seems so absurd and economic damage would be so immense. Britain would schließlichalle economic ties with its main Handelspartnernzerstören.
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The “No Deal” scenario was always used as a threat by BritischenRegierung – especially now rejoined ministers Boris Johnsonund David Davis – to frighten EU. The argument: union would break important production site and market Great Britain way. The German automotive industry is dagegenwehren and in end most important EU country in Germany will force or Staatenzum to be forced to do so – according to Boris Johnson’s argument. So far istdavon but nothing to feel. The European Union has remained hard in EntscheidendenPunkten. She knows that British are more dependent on EUals or way around. That is why threat goes nowhere.
2. No Brexit
Taking back Brexit, ignoring result of – Ohnehinnicht binding – referendum: Although certain Britenund probably also dream of people in rest of EU: this scenario is unlikely. In British Parliament, re is no majority for a departure from Brexit – even under a Labour-led government with a Prime minister Jeremy Corbynwürde, Brexit continues to negotiate. Close links with EU would be easier to implement than with Tories under Prime Minister May.
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The population is still deeply divided. Since referendum re has been little change: sometimes re is a Umfrageneine-thin majority for a stay in EU, sometimes dieBefürworter of exit ahead. Many Britons, however, have mittlerweiledamit to leave EU, even if y have voted Brexit mselves at Referendumgegen. There is great frustration in both camps about government’s lack of planning – to be read at most recent election result Derbritischen conservatives.
Also for government is a whereabouts keineOption. If Theresa May (or her successor, she should Gestürztwerden) now in front of press to cancel Brexit would destroy Tories JeglichesWählervertrauen. The political collateral damage would be immense. Eswäre The betrayal at will of voter.
Last but not least, even though many europäischePolitiker, including prominent voices like ex-federal finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, always stress that door for British to remain in EUimmer is still open: How should rest of Europe be Great Britain bodies, who has made a solchesSchauspiel in last two years? A pause for reflection outside EU so that DieBriten can become clear about what y really want, Vielleichtauch would do well for rest of EU.
